What will be the repercussions if UK citizens vote to leave the EU? This series of commentaries, Britexit, deals with various aspects of problem. First some major economic implications and what you are not being told by dishonest bureaucrats and ignorant or willful politicians.

The EU is the world’s largest trading unit. Its GDP represents 23.2 percent of world GDP. This is far bigger than the USA. In 2012 EU-28 had a combined GDP of $16.72 Trillion. The USA was then $15.68Trillion. The UK has a GDP of some $2.44Trillion, rather small in comparison. India’s GDP is $1.62Trillion.

These figures come from the World Bank given in Wikipedia.

Whatever may be said about China’s economy, it should be recalled that EU is twice the size of China’s GDP which is at $8.36Trillion.

In global terms the UK has 3.5% of world GDP.

That is relatively small but changes to the present structure, if not handled with care, could cause serious global disruptions. Major transatlantic trade negotiations with the USA are under way to create a free trade area. What if the UK pulls out of the EU? How can these trade vectors continue to Britain’s advantage? The EU says that each family budget will gain 500 euros at the end of the negotiations. Will Britons lose out? Will it have enough political beef to conduct its own negotiations to at least the same level of success?

The greater danger is that EU renegotiation of the UK might well cause major disruption to world trade and international legal agreements, unless far-sighted measures are undertaken to make the process as smooth and as problem-free as possible.

How can UK avoid looming challenges elsewhere? Take a look inside the UK. Two referendums are on the books, one for membership of the EU, the other in Scotland for independence from the UK. Others might come fast and furious after this, once the voters have a taste for referendums as a means to redress the balance against unpopular politicians who seem to ignore public opinion.

British exit from the EU might exacerbate national tensions within the United Kingdom. Will Britain break up? The UK might be reduced to separate regional nations of England, Wales and N. Ireland. The Scottish government has declared it wishes to remain inside the EU. No solution for Whitehall that does not take into account the possibility of an independent Scotland remaining inside the EU (or for that matter an independent Wales, and N Ireland separately or as a single entity) is acceptable.

While the British government in London’s Whitehall might have to calm fears at home, it needs also to pour oil on troubled waters with Brussels. No solution that leaves Britain and the EU as antagonistic forces after negotiation can be judged successful. How can peace and harmony be assured? Articles 49 and 50 on entry and exit of the EU in one of the two Lisbon Treaties are full of traps and complications to wreck the unwary. (These can be discussed later. )

The first vital priority for both British politicians, bureaucrats and the public is to get informed about what the European Community is and what the European Union is and what it isn’t.

Major technical and legal problems for exit are too often ignored. The European system that Britain entered in 1973 did not include the European Union (EU). The latter is an expansion, and a grossly deformed and distorted one at that, of just one of three European Communities, the European Economic Community or Customs Union. It came with the Maastricht Treaty that was rejected by the Danish electorate. (It had to vote again but many Member States did not even get that chance of one referendum.)

The very first principle of the supranational Community system is that the publicly expressed opinion on the constitution and exercise of powers is sovereign. Politicians buried that document they all signed up to in the French Foreign Ministry archives for half a century! What sauce! Robert Schuman‘s main aim was to create a peace-enhancing European economy. He provided the means for a thorough-going Democracy. Charles de Gaulle who seized power in France in 1957 put that on ice but did not destroy the potential to construct real European democracy.

The supranational Community system was first blocked by de Gaulle with his policy of wrecking it by stealth then a policy of the empty chair (boycott), followed by closed-door arm-twisting of small States, until the Council of Ministers became his poodle. Today too many government leaders act like ‘little Gaullists’ as they cut ‘package deals’ for themselves behind closed doors without public approval or knowledge.

The British still feel riled by Continental attitudes typified by de Gaulle looking down his long nose and saying ‘NON’ to the UK, very undiplomaticly at a press conference as a minor question of French policy. Today’s politicians have yet to reform the anti-democratic measure Europeans were forced to swallow at that time with its wine lakes, beef and butter bergs as de Gaulle and other national leaders took European taxpayers money to subsidize their own national policies. The Euro is the latest scam by nationalist politicians who corrupt decent politics and debase money as a store of value.

Britain’s policy was also typified by ignorance and antagonism by its bureaucrats in London, Whitehall. (That is not unusual for bureaucrats. The French ministry, the Quai d’Orsay, were among Schuman’s greatest opponents. Both were happier with the status quo, treating all other Europeans as foreigners to be exploited for the national interest that they, the bureaucrats, defined.) Schuman’s democracy should give free voice to European industry, workers and consumers, to regions and national parliaments.

Whitehall has shown its profound ignorance about the European Community system in the past, especially when it comes to referendums.

In June 1975 the voters were asked:

Do you think the UK should stay in the European Community (Common Market)?

That borders on criminal neglect. What catastrophic ignorance! Or was it Soviet-style deception and disinformation? Whitehall civil servants are supposed to be intelligent and well-educated.

The Common Market was just ONE of THREE Communities that the UK was a member of. The UK joined all THREE in 1973! The Coal and Steel Community, Euratom and the Economic Community. The latter is called in UK the ‘Common Market’ as if it were the place to buy vegetables with soil still attached. If Whitehall told the truth (then and now) they would have to explain how the Community system was supposed to work and why there were THREE. And vitally, politicians and civil servants would have to discuss European Democracy and the Gaullist corruption of it. That would expose to all Europeans (not just the British) the wholesale scam of the Council of Ministers closed door deals. At this time the Labour government boycotted the European Parliament as a totally undemocratic institution that de Gaulle had sidelined with his poodle-powers.

In 2002 politicians decided — without any referendum even whispered or suggested — not to renew the founding Treaty of Paris that defines the principles of European democracy. This is one reason that the European iron and steel industry has suffered spectacular decline. Where is European Energy policy? Where is Europe’s defence against foreign threats to its existence?

Today in 2014 a similar SHOCKING level of ignorance is apparent in the proposed question for the upcoming UK referendum — even after it had been corrected by the Watchdog Electoral Commission:

Should the UK remain a member of the European Union?

To thoroughly leave the system, the UK must also leave the remaining Community, Euratom. It is quite separate from the European Union. The UK could possibly leave the EU. Then the UK will find itself an uncomfortable reality. The UK will still find that it has membership of Council of Ministers. It will be obliged to be represented in other bodies such as the European Parliament, the Economic and Social Committee, the Court of Auditors and the Court of Justice. (Euratom and the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) never had the European Council as an official institution.)

Only recently the UK reaffirmed its membership in Euratom. The last modifications to the ECSC and Euratom treaties were made in the Treaty of Nice of 2001 for purposes of enlargement. Some protocols of the Lisbon Treaty (rejected by referendums when it was called the Constitutional Treaty!) were added to the Euratom treaty and thus the UK confirmed Euratom as an active treaty. Article 208 says it is ‘concluded for an unlimited period.’

British politicians, bureaucrats and the British public need to get the facts — not to mention all those in Brussels who are living myths!

How can UK exit both the EU and Euratom too? Keep reading these commentaries regularly and find out! Check out the facts on Schuman Project website !

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  1. О состоянии нефтяного сектора Ирака. Араик Саргсян, академик, вице-президент Академии Геополитических Проблем России, руководитель Армянского Отделения, Почетный Консул Македонии в Армении. Министр энергетики Иордании А.Энсоур (Ensour) на встрече в г. Аммане, 9 января 2014 г. со своим коллегой А.аль-Луайби (Luaibi) заявил, что Иордания придает большое значение ускорения реализации проекта строительства магистрального нефтепровода (МНП) для экспорта иракской нефти через Иорданию. Стороны обсудили уже выполненные этапы работ и сосредоточились на обсуждении исследований и тендеров, которые должны быть проведены в течение следующих нескольких месяцев. А.Энсоур отметил возможность участия частного сектора в реализации проекта, подчеркнув возможность продления МНП до Египта и Средиземного моря. А.аль-Луайби сказал, что проект будет экономически выгодным и для Ирака и для Иордании, указав на возможность создания нефтеперерабатывающего завода (НПЗ) и тепловой электростанции (ТЭС) в г. Акабе, в 330 км к югу от столицы Иордании. Ирак и Иордания договорились построить новый МНП в ходе визита премьер-министра Ирака Н. Аль-Малики в Иорданию, в декабре 2012 г. 28 февраля 2013 г. на конференции в г Аммане, губернатор Басры Х. Халаф сообщил, что Ирак начал практические работы по проектированию этого МНП от г Басры на юге Ирака – до иорданского порта Акаба, на берегу Красного моря. Строительство МНП Ирак – Иордания разделено на 2 этапа. 1-й этап – строительство МНП Басра – Акаба протяженностью 1680 км. Мощность МНП Басра – Акаба составит 1 млн барр/сутки. На месторождениях Басры добывается около 2,3 млн барр/сутки нефти, что составляет долю около 70% от общей добычи нефти в Ираке. На 2м этапе Ирак интересуется построить МНП Басра – Баниас, мощностью 1,25 млн барр/сутки, в сирийский порт Баниас в Средиземном море, сообщал ранее Д. Хасан, начальник отдела проектирования госкомпании SCOP, акционером которой является Миннефти Ирака. Проект предполагает предоставление Иорадании до 150 тыс барр/сутки нефти, а остальная нефть должны быть экспортирована через порт Акаба. МНП стоимостью 18 млрд долл США, мощностью транспортировки 2,25 млн бар/сутки нефти, по оценкам чиновников, будет генерировать от 2 – 3 млрд долл США/год доходов для Иордании. В ноябре 2013 г стало известно, что право участвовать в тендере получили фирмы из Италии, Египта и Кореи. Напомним, что в далеком 2002 г. позиции российских компаний в Ираке были сильнее. Тендер на строительство МНП от месторождения al-Haditha в северо-западной части Ирака до иорданского г. Зарга стоимостью 350 млн долл США тогда выиграл Стройтрансгаз, в то время еще не контролируемый Г.Тимченко, который приобрел долю участия в компании лишь в 2007 г. А в это время «Газпром нефть» уже получила первую нефть на месторождении Бадра в Ираке. “В конце декабря 2013 года “Газпром нефть” успешно завершила испытание скважины БД 4 на иракском месторождении Бадра, оператором по разработке которого является компания. Полученный суточный дебит составил семь тысяч баррелей нефти в режиме фонтанирования”. На Бадре завершается создание инфраструктуры, необходимой для ввода месторождения в промышленную эксплуатацию в 2014 году. Ведутся работы по строительству центрального пункта сбора (ЦПС) нефти общей мощностью 170 тысяч баррелей в сутки – в ближайшее время в эксплуатацию будет запущена первая линия ЦПС производительностью 60 тысяч баррелей в сутки. Также осуществляется подготовка к строительству пункта по переработке газа мощностью 1,5 миллиарда кубометров в год. Завершается подключение месторождения к магистральной трубопроводной системе Ирака. Месторождение Бадра расположено на территории провинции Вассит на Востоке Ирака. По предварительным оценкам геологические запасы Бадры составляют три миллиарда баррелей нефти. Контракт с правительством Ирака на разработку месторождения подписан в январе 2010 года с консорциумом компаний, в который входит “Газпром нефть” (30 процентов), корейская Kogas (22,5 процентов), малазийская Petronas (15 процентов) и турецкая ТРАО (7,5 процентов). Еще 25 процентов в проекте принадлежит иракскому правительству. “Газпром нефть” является оператором проекта. Проект разработки месторождения Бадра рассчитан на 20 лет с возможной пролонгацией на пять лет. Расчетный объем капиталовложений составляет порядка двух миллиардов долларов. Инвесторам будут возмещены затраты и выплачено вознаграждение в размере 5,5 доллара за баррель добытого нефтяного эквивалента. В 2017 году объем добычи предполагается довести до 170 тысяч баррелей нефти в сутки (порядка 8,5 миллиона тонн в год). А поставки нефти из иракского Курдистана на мировые рынки через Турцию начнутся к концу текущего месяца. Как заявили в правительстве курдской автономии, первая партия “черного золота” объемом около 2 млн баррелей будет поставлена по недавно открытому нефтепроводу в средиземноморский терминал в турецком городе Джейхан для дальнейшего экспорта. По оценкам властей Иракского Курдистана, к марту текущего года месячный объем экспорта нефти из автономии возрастет до 6 млн баррелей, а к концу года он будет составлять около 12 млн баррелей. В ноябре прошлого года турецкий премьер Реджеп Тайип Эрдоган и глава правительства Иракского Курдистана Нечриван Барзани подписали договор, согласно которому курдская автономия получает возможность поставлять нефть и природный газ на мировые рынки, через Турцию. Поставки нефти являются предметом острого спора между центральным правительством Ирака и автономным Иракским Курдистаном. По мнению официального Багдада, только у него есть право на контроль экспорта “черного золота” и подписание контрактов, однако курды считают, что в поставках нефти они имеют право действовать независимо, не противореча при этом конституции Ирака. Однако, ведению бизнеса в Ираке могут помешать геополитические игры Королевского Дома Саудов и Израиля. Власти Израиля признались в попытках расчленить Ирак и парализовать активность Багдада в арабском мире и регионе. Экс-глава Службы общей безопасности Израиля (ШАБАК) Ави Дихтер в своём выступлении в Центре стратегических исследований отметил, что “стратегическая цель Израиля заключается в том, чтобы не дать Ираку сыграть активную роль на региональном уровне и в арабском мире, которая может угрожать безопасности Израиля”. Газета The Jerusalem Post со ссылкой на Дихтера пишет, что Израиль поддерживает иракских курдов с целью образования независимого курдского государства. Тель-Авив преследует эту цель еще с 1970-ых годов…

  2. Information about the state of Iraq’s oil sector .
    Arayik Sargsyan, Academician, President of the Geopolitical Academy, Honorary Consul of Macedonia to Armenia.

    Jordanian Minister of Energy A.Ensour (Ensour) at a meeting in Amman, January 9, 2014 with his colleague Abdurrahman Al – Luaybi (Luaibi) said that Jordan attaches great importance to accelerate the implementation of the project of construction of the main pipeline (ISPs ) for export Iraqi oil through Jordan .
    The parties discussed the stages of work performed and the discussion focused on the research and tenders, which must be held within the next few months .
    A.Ensour noted the possibility of private sector participation in the project , highlighting the possibility of extending the ISPs to Egypt and the Mediterranean Sea.
    Abdurrahman Al – Luaybi said the project would be economically beneficial for Iraq and Jordan , pointing to the possibility of establishing an oil refinery ( refinery) and thermal power plant (TPP) in the city of Aqaba, 330 kilometers south of the capital of Jordan.
    Iraq and Jordan have agreed to build a new MNP during the visit of Prime Minister Nuri al- Maliki in Jordan in December 2012
    February 28, 2013 at a conference in Amman, Mr. Governor of Basra H. Khalaf said that Iraq began the practical work on the design of MNEs from Mr. Basra in southern Iraq – to the Jordanian port of Aqaba on the Red Sea .
    Construction MNEs Iraq – Jordan is divided into two stages.
    1st stage – construction of MNP Basra – Aqaba length of 1680 km .
    Power MNP Basra – Aqaba make 1 million barrels / day .
    In the oil fields of Basra produces about 2.3 million barrels / day of oil, or about 70 % share of total oil production in Iraq.
    On the 2nd stage of Iraq is interested to build MNP Basra – Banias , capacity 1.25 million barrels / day in the Syrian port of Banias on the Mediterranean , previously reported D. Hassan , head of the state-owned design SCOP, shareholder is the Ministry of Oil of Iraq.
    The project involves the provision Ioradanii up to 150 thousand barrels / day of oil , and the rest of the oil to be exported through the port of Aqaba.
    BNP value of 18 billion U.S. dollars , 2.25 million transportation capacity bar / day of oil, officials estimated , will generate 2 – 3 billion U.S. dollars / year of revenue for Jordan.
    In November 2013, it became known that the right to participate in the tender received by companies from Italy , Egypt and Korea.
    Recall that back in 2002 the position of Russian companies in Iraq were stronger.
    Tender for construction of MNEs from the field al-Haditha in north- western Iraq to the Jordanian city Zargami worth 350 million U.S. dollars then won Stroytransgas, while not yet controlled G.Timchenko which acquired a stake in the company only in 2007
    And at this time , ” Gazprom Neft ” has already received the first oil field in Iraq Badr .

    ” At the end of December 2013 ,” Gazprom Neft ” has successfully completed well testing DB 4 on the Iraqi Badra , operator at which the company . Resulting daily rate was seven thousand barrels of oil gushing mode .”
    Badr on completing the construction of the infrastructure necessary for the field is in commercial operation in 2014. Efforts to rebuild the central collection point (DSP ) of oil with a total capacity of 170 thousand barrels per day – soon to be launched into operation the first line of the DSP capacity of 60 thousand barrels per day .
    Also is preparing for the construction of a gas processing point capacity of 1.5 billion cubic meters per year . Terminates the connection to the main field pipeline system in Iraq.
    Badra is located in the province of East Vassit on Iraq. According to preliminary estimates geological reserves Badrah consists of three billion barrels of oil . Contract with the Iraqi government to develop the field was signed in January 2010 with a consortium of companies , which includes the ” Gazprom Neft ” (30 percent) , Korean Kogas (22,5 percent ), Malaysia’s Petronas ( 15 percent) and Turkish TPAO (7.5 percent). Another 25 percent of the project belongs to the Iraqi government . ” Gazprom oil ” is the project operator .
    Badra development project is designed for 20 years with a possible extension for five years. Estimated volume of investments of the order of two billion dollars. Investors will be reimbursed the costs and paid a fee of $ 5.5 per barrel of oil equivalent produced . In 2017, the production volume is expected to reach 170,000 barrels per day (about 8.5 million tons per year) .
    A supply of oil from Iraqi Kurdistan to the world markets via Turkey to begin by the end of this month.

    As stated in the government of the Kurdish autonomy , the first batch of “black gold ” of about 2 million barrels will be placed on the newly opened pipeline to the Mediterranean terminal in the Turkish city of Ceyhan for export . Authorities estimate of Iraqi Kurdistan , by March of this year the monthly volume of oil exports from the autonomy increase to 6 million barrels by the end of the year it will be about 12 million barrels.
    In November last year, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the head of government of Iraqi Kurdistan Nechrivan Barzani signed an agreement under which Kurdish autonomy is able to deliver oil and gas to the world markets via Turkey .
    Oil supplies are the subject of bitter dispute between Iraq’s central government and the autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan . According to the official Baghdad , only he has the right to control the export of “black gold ” and signing contracts , but the Kurds believe that oil supplies they have the right to act independently , without contradicting with the Iraqi constitution .
    However , doing business in Iraq may prevent geopolitical games of the Royal House of Saud and Israel. Israeli officials have admitted trying to dismember Iraq and paralyze the activity of Baghdad in the Arab world and the region.
    The former head of Israel’s General Security Service ( Shin Bet ) Avi Dichter in his speech at the Center for Strategic Studies said that ” Israel’s strategic objective is not to give Iraq to play an active role at the regional level and in the Arab world that can threaten the security of Israel . ”
    Newspaper The Jerusalem Post citing Dichter writes that Israel supports the Iraqi Kurds to form an independent Kurdish state . Tel Aviv pursues this goal since the 1970s …

  3. In June 1975 the voters were asked:

    Do you think the UK should stay in the European Community (Common Market)?
    it was outright deception.

    Read fco301048 and decide
    from this it is self evident deception

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